Archives for "Misc: 2007"

Nearshoring in new EU Countries

I have just returned from a holiday in Malta, which I visited not only for its sunshine, but also because I was curious about its potential as a business location.

I was pleasantly surprised by what I discovered. English is spoken (in fact, English is Malta's "business language"), personal income taxes are low, and IT companies can avail of business tax incentives. Malta is also a recent entry to the EU and, from the beginning of 2008, will use the euro as its currency.

Add to this a lower cost of living than Ireland's, a lower salary level, affordable accommodation, and I wonder whether -- in my line of work -- I'm on the right island.

Other pros: there are direct Ryanair flights from Dublin, and daytime temperatures rarely drop below 12 degrees at any time of year!

No wonder then that many UK companies are already using Malta as a "nearshoring" destination (BBC).

US Dollar Heading for Collapse?

Yesterday I finished a book called "Wake Up! Survive and Prosper in the Coming Economic Turmoil," which I have already blogged about.

I regularly read non-fiction books, and rarely mention them here, but this one has grabbed my attention. Since reading it, I have been looking around for other opinions on the state of the US economy. A lot of people out there are very angry and/or worried.

This July article in a Canadian website called Global Research takes a particularly glum view:

Here's how I would put it today: our economy is on an artificial life-support system, a barely-breathing hostage in a lunatic asylum. That asylum is the U.S. and world financial systems which are on the verge of collapse.

Before reading "Wake Up", I thought that the American economy had recovered from the dot-com bubble, thanks to some Keynesian government intervention. Not so. It seems the Fed replaced the dot-com bubble with the housing bubble, and Americans (both citizens and government) continued to live beyond their means. From the same website quoted above:

As everyone knows, the Federal Reserve under Chairman Alan Greenspan used the housing bubble, like a steroid drug, to pump liquidity into the economy. This worked, at least for a while, because consumers could borrow huge amounts of money at relatively low interest rates for the purchase of homes or for taking out home equity loans to pay off their credit cards, finance college education for their children, buy new cars, etc.

But what goes up must come down, eventually. Americans have been spending money they don't have for over a decade. The US national debt now works out at around $30,000 per citizen. Someone's got to foot the bill. The dollar is sliding against other currencies, particularly the euro.

But Europeans will not be able to delight in a collapsing dollar (the crisis in the subprime market is only the tip of the iceberg -- the rest of the US mortgage market will soon come crashing down), since Euro exports will be hit hard too. And many European countries, particularly the UK, are also overborrowed. We may be entering a period of social and political turmoil -- depression, unemployment, civil unrest, wars -- triggered by a global economic crash.

Chandramohan Sathyanathan, an Indian blogger, suggests that a US dollar collapse is highly possible, citing the country's huge trade and budget deficits.

The collapse of the dollar will throw the world into a global depression. Those nations with large external debts will not be able to trade sufficiently to earn the income to service their debts, and will slide into bankruptcy. The economies of New Zealand, Australia, Canada and the UK will also totally collapse, as a result of their indebtedness and not being able to service their borrowings. Crime will become rampant. Law and order will cease to exist. Disease will become widespread.Though Asian economies will also be affected....they will recover after a mammoth turmoil.

So what do the authors of "Wake Up" advise? In short, be prepared for huge socioeconomic change on a global scale. Get out of debt as fast as you can. Don't take on any more debt. If you own property in the US or any other rich western country, consider selling it.

If you own property outside the US, consider switching your mortgage to a US dollar mortgage (the logic being that the US dollar amount is going to become small, relative to other currencies).

Of course, it might never happen. But will it hurt to be prepared?

China: The Sleeping Giant Awakes (And So Should You!)

I'm halfway through a book called Wake Up! Survive and Prosper in the Coming Economic Turmoil. Despite surprisingly few (and poor!) reviews on Amazon UK, this book is by two British-based authors, Jim Mellon and Al Chalabi. (The reviews on Amazon US are better, but still few.)

Call me a sucker for doom-mongering, but so far I've found the book both educating and enthralling. The author's central themes, from what I've read, are:

  • China will become a world superpower within the coming decade
  • Many Western countries, but particularly the US, are severely over-borrowed
  • The world economy is heading into a dramatic deflationary period
  • An energy crisis looms
  • Geopolitics are increasingly unstable

As the authors point out, all of the information in the book can be gleaned from reading newspapters etc. But they put it together in a way that presents a compelling -- and sometimes chilling -- big picture.

The coming crisis will, they hint, bring opportunities (I guess I'll be reading about those in the coming chapters -- so far it's been pretty grim reading). Nevertheless, the authors' accounts of China's rapid economic growth has been fascinating.

Mellon and Chalabi stress that you can get anything you want manufactured cheaply in China, where the average wage is about 40 cents (US) a day. Indeed, a company I've worked with, based in the west of Ireland, has launched its own brand of VOIP phones. The ideas and marketing are generated in Ireland; the phones are built in and shipped from China.

When the authors talk about western countries living beyond their means and individuals not realising that the spending spree will have to end, I look at Ireland 2007. I glance at the newspaper reports of massive consumer debt in Ireland -- fuelled mainly by a property bubble that has recently started to make an ugly popping sound -- and see that the picture the authors paint looks very real.

Indeed, since the book was published, one of its predictions is already coming true: Mellon and argued that the US dollar was inevitably going to fall in value in relation to other currencies. We are seeing this happen, with the euro now worth $1.40 -- but the authors predict the slide will continue for a long time. (This hurts EU countries too, who need the dollar value to remain competitive, so that they can continue to export to the US.)

That this book seems to have gone largely unnoticed makes me curious. Perhaps we only want to hear good news, whether it's true or not?

Read "Wake Up!" along with Karoke Capitalism and your world-view will change. You may even see opportunities where others see crises. I know I do.

DocuFarm: In-Browser Document Viewer

Docufarm is an online, in-browser document viewer that I have recently discovered and already find very useful.

Install the Docufarm Firefox extension, and you can click on a link to a PDF, Word, PowerPoint or Postscript file and view that file from within your browser.

The main advantage of the extension is that it spares you the agonising seconds, even minutes, it takes to open an external application such as Microsoft Word or Powerpoint.

All the pages of the document are first presented in a "print preview" sort of format -- i.e. they are laid out, side-by-side, and only large text is visible. Click on any given page and you can zoom in. Admittedly, you will have to wait a moment for the page to come into focus, but it still beats the wait -- and the crunch on resources -- involved with opening an external application on your desktop. See for example this PowerPoint presentation about Google.

The user interface is innovative -- and seems to use AJAX -- but the makers could improve it. For example, I would like to be able to scroll or pan within a page.

Still, if Docufarm's creators continue to iterate this solution (by making it possible to edit text and save documents, for example), I think they will be on to a huge winner.

Start Up - Chronicle of a Silicon Valley Failure

We are aware that we learn from our mistakes. But we can also learn from other people's mistakes.

I've read business books written by successful entrepreneurs (such as Mark McCormack), from which I have gained many nuggets of wisdom. But I recently finished reading Jerry Kaplan's "Start Up: A Silicon Valley Adventure", which tells the story of the company the author founded in 1987, through to its collapse in 1994. From this book, I also learned a lot.

First off, a warning: The book is quite tedious and pedantic in places. Kaplan explains that he kept notes, voice recordings, emails, memos and other documents throughout his five years with the company, called GO. While this helps him recount specific meetings with great precision, there are too many details and not enough story. (I blame his editor. Less is more!)

Despite the pedantry, Kaplan recounts the battle-a-day existence of a start-up that -- amazingly -- kept going for five years, employing over 200 people and burning 75 million dollars, without earning a penny in revenues. All this before the dot-com bubble!

Kaplan's motivation for starting GO was to create a new breed of computer -- a light, portable tablet that would use a pen instead of a keyboard (what we would today call a PDA).

Kaplan's story highlights the centrality, for better or worse, of politics in the corporate environment; of people, their personalities, and their interactions. Here's a passage that I found particularly insightful:

WHEN I WAS FIVE, my parents got a portable television set for my bedroom. At first I was afraid to get dressed in front of it, for fear that the people on the screen could see me, just as I could see them. I knew that the gray, blurry pictures were merely signals magically sent through the air, but I didn't understand which qualities of living human beings carried over to the new machine. Like the rest of my generation, I was captivated by this limitless window on the world, and what I saw seemed as real to me as my own two hands.

Through the power of television, I knew that lions were large, proud creatures that roared and lived in Africa. But one day my father took me to see the big cats at the Bronx Zoo. I could barely relate the coarse, smelly creatures in front of me - lying docile and panting in their cages while flies buzzed around their heads - to what I had witnessed from the comfort of my bedroom. The TV images just didn't capture the real experience.

Sitting in the briefing rooms of AT&T thirty-five years later, watching staffers project spreadsheets, graphs, and slides from their portable computers onto the large screen monitors, I realized that computers mislead managers just as television misleads kids. Fed a steady diet of numbers and charts from the comfort of their conference room chairs, senior executives experience only a desiccated version of the powerful forces that shape and grow their organizations. Mistaking these two-dimensional reflections for reality, they shadowbox their way through complex decisions, unwittingly jostled in one direction or another by self-interested emissaries, who can spin a tale of threat and opportunity as skillfully as any Hollywood screenwriter.

In these rooms, individuals are stripped of their unique skills and reduced to chits, then shifted from one column to another. Complex working relationships, knitted together over time like trees intertwining their limbs, become statistical learning curves. Loyalty and trust, painstakingly earned through years of delivering useful products and serving customers' needs, are measured as the difference between market capitalization and book value. Real human wealth, in the form of security, freedom, productivity, and knowledge, is scarcely captured by unexercised stock options. There are no line items that gauge the real engines of prosperity: vision, passion, and commitment. The plain truth is you cannot suck reality from the hypnotic glow of a vacuum tube.

While Bill and Randy began planning the merger, my job was to keep GO's visibility as high as possible among the powers at AT&T. I was lucky to be invited to present some of our most recent work to Bob Kavner at an early morning briefing, barely two weeks after his powwow in Short Hills. Flying to New Jersey for a planning session, I spent an entire day in a room full of nervous staffers, who reviewed my slides word by word, carefully coordinating my presentation with theirs.

"When you do your demo," one staffer suggested, "it's a good idea to focus your benefits around increasing long-distance traffic. That's the real mother lode around here."

"Got it."

After ten hours of review for a fifteen-minute demo, the next morning I walked into the conference room where Bob Kavner and several other key executives sipped coffee and chatted about the news: Kavner had just been promoted to CEO of the multimedia products and services group. One of GO's sharpest salespeople, Danny Shader, was accompanying me on the trip. As unobtrusively as possible, he went around the room collecting business cards.

"What'd you do that for?" I whispered. "You pretty much know who everyone is."

"Titles are deceptive, but you can tell who really matters by the paper." He showed me the cards. "The ones with the real power are printed on this bone-colored stock. The others have white cards with blue logos."

I sat down next to Kavner and made my pitch. "Most people think that you have to have a computer with a keyboard to access a database. But there are thousands of VTR" - voice tone response - "systems in operation today. You know, 'Press 1 to hear your balance, press 2 to hear your last five debits.' In fact, this is probably the dominant form of consumer data access today. Working with your people, we've prototyped a new, richer telephone interface under Penpoint - the successor to today's twelve-key pad - which integrates voice and data for the phones of the future."

Kavner watched the screen closely throughout my demo, nodding periodically. But whenever he had a question, he turned to his own staff for an answer. I felt as though I were just another audio-visual device delivering the latest briefing in a more personal form.

I groused to Danny as we packed up our gear. "I felt like a trained monkey."

"You looked like a trained monkey."

"What a waste of time. We fly all the way out here and squander a whole day in a planning session, then get to entertain Kavner for half an hour before his real day gets under way."

"You don't get it," Danny said. "This goes on all the time. It's just how things get done in a big company."

I hadn't thought about it before, but I had never actually worked for a big company. And based on what I had seen, I wasn't so sure I wanted to.

Copyright 1994 by Jerry Kaplan, All Rights Reserved,

From "Startup: A Silicon Valley Adventure", published by Houghton Mifflin, 1995.

FireFTP - Transfer Files Directly From Browser

I recently discovered a Firefox plugin that I already consider indispensable. FireFTP acts just like a regular FTP client, except it works entirely within your browser.

It has all of the features you'd expect from a standard FTP programme, including an intuitive interface; viewing of files by name, last modified, etc.; and CHMOD (i.e. change permissions of files on the remote server).

"So it's just an FTP client that runs within a browser; what's so great about that?" I hear you ask.

Well, it spares you those agonising seconds -- sometimes minutes -- that it takes to open a separate FTP client if, like me, you always have a browser window open.

Now if only someone would release a Firefox plug-in HTML editor as good as Homesite or HTML-Kit, and a CSS editor as good as TopStyle...

Tech Support in the Middle Ages

Yet another humourous web-related clip:

Questions About Life

We interrupt the irregular Mediajunk schedule to bring you the following Powerpoint-esque examination of questions about life:

Pssst... Wanna Buy a Microsoft Bug?

Proof that we are living in an information economy comes in a New York Times articles about the market for Microsoft Vista bugs (or in the corporate giant's own parlance, "known issues"):

When its predecessor, Windows XP, was released five years ago, software bugs were typically hunted by hackers for fame and glory, not financial reward. But now software vulnerabilities -- as with stolen credit-card numbers and spammable e-mail addresses -- carry real financial value. They are commonly bought, sold and traded online, both by legitimate security companies, which say they are providing a service, and by nefarious hackers and thieves.

So how much does a bug sell for?

The Japanese security firm Trend Micro said in December that it had found a Vista flaw for sale on a Romanian Web forum for $50,000.

Wow, fifty big ones, eh? Are bugs hard to find?

“To find a vulnerability, you have to do a lot of hard work,” said Evgeny Legerov, founder of a small security firm, Gleg Ltd., in Moscow.

How times have changed. In the early 1990s, users willingly documented MSWord bugs and brought them to Microsoft's attention, in a desperate effort to have the product improved. James Gleick's 1992 article, Chasing Bugs in the Electronic Village, documents how bugs were becoming a major problem even then.

Bugs are [software's] special curse. They are an ancient devil -- the product defect -- in a peculiarly exasperating modern dress. As software grows more complex and we come to rely on it more, the industry is discovering that bugs are more pervasive and more expensive than ever before... When a program doubles in size, the potential for unexpected bugs more than doubles -- far more, just as the number of potential love affairs more than doubles when the population of your office rises from 10 to 20...

15 years later, bugs have become an industry in their own right.

Sidebar: Bill Gates met with the Romanian president Traian Basescu yesterday, who attributed the success of his country's IT industry to, eh, pirated copies of Microsoft products. Unsurprisingly, Bill gates (who apparently seemed a little shocked by the remarks) did not comment.

Top Domains Bought by Cyber Squatters

People are paying big money for domains again. In 2006, the most expensive domain name was diamonds.com, which sold for 7.5 million US dollars.

But, like speculative art dealings, most domains are sold to fellow domain-purveyors, hoping to make a significant return on investment down the line.

Others are raking in so much moolah from Google Ads, they can afford to make big investments in domains for their MFA (made-for-adsense) sites.

According to dailydomainer:

Of the 100 highest-priced domains sold in 2006, only 18 have been developed, 8 redirect to a developed site, 5 are affiliate sites, and 6 are currently under development. 9 domains don't work at all and a massive 54 show PPC (pay per click) ads.

Interesting that dot coms are still the best sellers. Dot eu? Eeeweeegh!

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